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In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Investment Committee's Pullback Playbook: Nvidia, Applied Materials, Apple, Uber, XLF and XLVThe Investment Committee share their pullback playbook for today's down market.
Organizations: Nvidia, Applied, Apple
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what the technicals say about the XLF, Wells Fargo and JPMorganBill Strazzullo, Bell Curve Trading chief market strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what the charts say about the XLF, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan.
Persons: JPMorgan Bill Strazzullo Organizations: JPMorgan, Bell Curve Trading Locations: Wells Fargo
The last few breakout attempts in late 2023 failed to attract enough interested buyers to push beyond the $360-$370 zone. Relative strength BRK.B also has displayed strong periods of relative strength vs. the financial sector. ('XLF' is the Financial Select SPDR tracking the financial sector in the S & P 500.) In other words, the stock can give investors exposure to the financial sector without having to endure the same risk to rising rates as banks. BRK.B last pushed to a new high vs. the S & P 500 in late 2018, but that breakout didn't hold.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, BRK.B, That's, Frank Cappelleri Locations: Berkshire
Finding a stock to trade "A rising tide lifts all boats" and vice-versa is my mantra here. The trade set-up With a bearish directional bias in place, all I need to do is find a suitable options structure to take a bearish trade. The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as a "put debit spread". Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. Since the width of our spread is $255 – $250 = $5, I can buy the spread for $2.50.
Persons: XLF, Nishant Pant Organizations: Visa, Mastercard
One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.
Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ
Even the market's most serious risks likely won't derail the economy, according to the brain trust at $1.3 trillion Ameriprise Financial. The S&P 500 should score a mid- to high-single-digit gain next year, Saglimbene told Insider, if earnings grow as expected. So there's some risk that valuations are going to have to come in, and that path for interest rates is very important." Popular small-cap ETFs include the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) while the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF (VGK) and WisdomTree Europe Small-Cap Dividend ETF (DFE) also might fit with Ameriprise's projections. "At the same time, we'll have yields that are at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis.
Persons: Russell Price, Price, he's, Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene, Justin Burgin, Saglimbene, Burgin, There's, we've, Russell, Ameriprise, weren't Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Saglimbene, Schwab, Vanguard, Index Fund, Fed Locations: Israel, Europe
Despite a slight decline in the S & P 500 since Thursday's close, the financial sector is essentially unchanged as I write this. Risk premiums, as implied by options prices on Financial Select SPDR (XLF) vs. SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , have also narrowed. Put prices on the S & P 500 are slightly higher and put prices in financials are slightly lower. The most active contract, the October $285 calls, traded 445 contracts (44,500 shares worth) at an average price of $6.26/contract. DISCLOSURES: (Owns ISRG calls) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Let's, Banks, financials, SPDR, we've, Wednesday's outperformance Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Trust, JPMorgan Locations: financials
Banks have suffered as interest rates linger at higher levels for longer, making the cost of borrowing money more expensive. Investors such as Neuberger Berman's Steve Eisman aren't optimistic about the sector either heading into earnings season due to higher capital requirements . Earnings per share have been growing at least 5% on average a year for the past three years, showing earnings consistency. Average analyst consensus forecasts call for nearly 13% upside from Wednesday's $122.74 close. JPMorgan also made the list, with the average analyst price target calling for close to 16% upside.
Persons: Banks, Neuberger, Steve Eisman, KeyCorp, Piper Sandler, Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: CNBC Pro, PNC, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Cleveland, Pittsburgh
The recent sharp rise in interest rates has created a buying opportunity in some financial stocks, according to Bank of America. Surging bond yields have the potential to slow the U.S. economy and damage the financial sector, weighing on bank stocks. But Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in a note to clients Wednesday that some stocks have fallen far enough that investors who can stomach the volatility should turn buyers. "We see it as almost impossible in the near term for bank stocks to disconnect with the price action in [U.S. Treasury] yields. The stocks Bank of America highlighted as trading at this attractive level include Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs , First Horizon and East West .
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, U.S . Treasury Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
US stocks have defied all odds this year, and the market rally only strengthened in July. After two months of nearly nonstop gains for the S&P 500, a long-time chartmaster warns that the weakness that markets displayed in early August is just the beginning. As expected, the S&P 500 rallied after October when that headwind passed, and finished 2022 with a bang. Charts that Keller studies also indicate that this market rally has reached its late innings. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking those sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB).
Persons: David Keller, Keller, chartmaster, Stocks, headwind, Brace, we've, StockCharts.com, Keller doesn't Organizations: Energy, P Oil & Gas Exploration, Production, Commodities
The 'broadening out' rally is real. Here's how to play it
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The S & P 500 is up 2.3% this month, but the market really is broadening out , and former market leaders (tech and consumer discretionary) are lagging. You might be surprised to discover that about 60 of the 100 companies in the Nasdaq 100 are not technology companies. The Nasdaq 100 includes Airbnb, Marriott, Costco, GE Healthcare, Ross Stores, and Honeywell. First Trust Nasdaq-100 Ex-Technology ( QQXT ) tracks an equal-weighted index of Nasdaq 100 stocks that excludes technology companies. The ProShares S & P Ex-Technology ETF ( SPXT ) tracks a market-cap-weighted index of U.S. large-cap stocks, excluding firms in the technology sector.
Persons: Banks, Russell, Todd Sohn, Dan Ives, Rush, Ives Organizations: Energy, Dow, Technology, Nasdaq, GE Healthcare, Ross Stores, Honeywell, There's, Trust, Ex, Microsoft, Nvidia, Thrones, Oracle, Apple, IBM, Meta, Adobe Locations: Financials, Marriott, Costco
The Dow rose for the ninth consecutive trading session Thursday, its longest winning streak since 2017. Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) has raked in more than $1 billion in net inflows over the past week. Here are some other notable ETF data points from the past week. The fund has gained more than 4% this month and brought in about $300 million in new cash over the past week. SPY saw abnormally high outflows of more than $10 billion over the past week.
Persons: Dow, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Dow Jones, DIA, Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, UnitedHealth, Vanguard, CSI China Internet
Recessions haven't always resulted in declining stock markets, and good opportunities can be found amid them. Sectors for recession naysayersThe best sectors for recession disbelievers are the most economically sensitive ones: industrials, materials and financials. Well-positioned companies with good growth prospects currently include: Corteva, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp., PPG Industries and Sherwin-Williams. Currently buyable names include: Campbell Soup Co., General Mills, The Hershey Co., Kellogg's, Kimberly-Clark Corp., Kroger, Procter & Gamble and Walmart. Sector names with reasonable risk levels and good growth prospects include: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc., Veeva Systems Inc., IQVIA Holdings Inc., Cigna Group and Zoetis Inc.
Persons: Sherwin, Williams, Mayur, Martin Marietta, JPMorgan Chase, Rowe Price, Willis Towers Watson, Campbell, General Mills, Clark, Willie B, Thomas, Digitalvision Organizations: Westend61, University of Michigan Consumer, Investors, Westinghouse Air Brake Co, Cummins Inc, CSX, Emerson Electric, Otis Worldwide, Carrier, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Illinois Tool, Lockheed Martin Corp, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp, PPG Industries, XLF, JPMorgan, Rowe Price Group Inc, American International Group, Allstate, The, McLennan, Sectors, Co, Hershey Co, Clark Corp, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Walmart, Getty Images Health, iShares U.S, Medical Devices, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc, Veeva Systems Inc, IQVIA Holdings Inc, Cigna, Zoetis Inc Locations: American, The Hartford, Marsh, Kimberly
American Express is one of Wells Fargo's top picks for a tougher recession scenario. The firm said the payment card company has an excellent risk-reward valuation — even in the case of revenue growth being cut in half. "Their ability to flex peak investment expense is a powerful lever," Wells Fargo said in a Wednesday client note. "We view AXP shares as quite defensive, and it's our Top Pick. We believe their earnings would hold up better than many expect should we head into a tougher economic environment than the mild recession we assume.
Persons: Wells Fargo's, Wells Fargo, Donald Fandetti, Fandetti, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Wells
Bank stocks could be due for a rally, if history repeats itself. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which is focused on regional banks, climbed 6.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , a fund that tracks financial stocks more broadly, advanced 2.5%. The KRE was down more than 1% on Monday as regional bank stocks were once again under pressure. Notably, closely watched PacWest was able to avoid the regional bank downturn, adding 10% on Monday after surging almost 82% Friday.
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - The weekend rescue of troubled lender First Republic Bank (FRC.N) has done little to allay options traders' concerns about the overall health of U.S. regional banks. Traders who had bought upside calls on regional banks on Friday appeared to be exiting those positions as the regulator-engineered rescue of First Republic failed to catalyze a rally in the mid-cap bank sector. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF shares were down 2% at $41.70 in afternoon trading. At the individual stock level, traders were focused on regional lender PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) on Monday. With PacWest shares down 7%, put options, typically used for bearish bets, outnumbered call options, usually employed for bullish bets, 4-to-1, according to Trade Alert data.
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. lender by assets, reported a first-quarter profit that beat estimates with interest income offseting weakness in dealmaking. PNC shares were last down 1.9% while Zions was off 3.3% and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) shares fell 3.0%. First Republic shares fell 1.5%. Citi shares rose 4.2% and Bank of America was up 3.0% as their investors appeared to be encouraged by JPM's news. Morgan Stanley shares rose 0.9% while Goldman shares were up 1.1%.
Some of the biggest exchange traded funds focused on banks and other financial stocks are seeing solid interest from investors as the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank recede in the rearview mirror. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF (KRE) , which has had volatile but still net positive flows since the SVB collapse, scooped up another $241 million over the past week. The new inflows come just ahead of earnings season for the banks. Many analysts expect the reports to show that depositors moved their cash from small regional banks and parked it at larger banks that are perceived to be safer. KBWB YTD mountain Bank ETFs are seeing interest but not yet rebounding.
As Wall Street gears up for another earnings season, analysts see some stocks better positioned than others for gains. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen for stocks that Wall Street analysts think have the largest potential upside heading into a new earnings season. And more than half of analysts covering Booking Holdings still rate it a strong buy or buy, according to Refinitiv data. BKNG YTD mountain Shares of Booking Holdings Another stock expected to outperform during earnings season is Paccar . Salesforce's earnings per share are estimated to climb by 24% over the next six months.
While the S&P 500 index (.SPX) has advanced 6% since mid-March, when the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sparked tumult in the banking sector, investors have been more wary of financial stocks. The S&P 500 Banks Group (.SPXBK) is up just 3% from its March low and remains down 14% for the year. The pervasive gloom around financial stocks has increased the cost for investors betting on more downside while making it relatively inexpensive to bet on a rebound. For investors who believe financial earnings and guidance will come in better than expected, Elevation Securities recommended buying Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.P) call options at the 33 strike. "Given how beaten up bank stocks are, buying calls into earnings can make sense," said Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors.
The rally in growth and tech stocks in the first quarter caught much of Wall Street off-guard, but many ETF strategists are sticking to their call and not chasing the hot sectors quite yet. The big winners in the stock market during the first quarter were found among growth stocks. QQQ YTD mountain Growth stocks rebounded in the first quarter. One area that is popular among value investors is income funds, which can help investors offset market declines by generating cash. To be sure, the iShares strategy team has an improving view of growth stocks, at least in high quality names.
Big bank stocks have rarely been cheaper, says GMO's asset allocation team. Two GMO is most bullish on are JPMorgan and Bank of America. Financials-sector stocks have gotten hammered in March amid the failures of institutions like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and as UBS hastily acquired a troubled Credit Suisse. The eight GSIBs include: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo. While GMO said it couldn't comment on which seven banks it likes, it said they include JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC).
A new ETF hitting the market this week is aimed at making it easier for investors to gain exposure to large banks, and large banks only. Roundhill Investments' Big Bank ETF (BIGB) will have equal weight positions in just six banks: Bank of America , Citigroup , Goldman Sachs , JPMorgan Chase , Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo . The Financial Select SPDR Fund (XLF) , by comparison, has more than 60 holdings, including regional banks and other financial firms, such as Berkshire Hathaway , which is its largest holding. The new fund could also underperform in the short term if the financial system stabilizes and regional bank stocks enjoy a rebound. Its biggest success by assets is the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (METV) , with more than $400 million in assets.
There's speculation the Silicon Valley Bank collapse could expose problems lurking in ETFs tied to specific sectors. Astoria Portfolio Advisors CIO John Davi has financials topping his watch list. "You need to be mindful of your risk,'" Davi, who runs the AXS Astoria Inflation Sensitive ETF , told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. Davi contends the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) could be among the biggest near-term laggards. His firm sold the ETF's positions in regional banks this week and bought larger cap banks, according to Davi.
Financials ETFs are getting hit hard by fear that the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will ripple throughout the banking system. According to a March 2 summary of the changes from BMO strategist Brian Belski, the biggest names moving to the financials industry are Visa , Mastercard and PayPal . The changes will filter through to many passive sector funds that track indexes, particularly those that use indexes from MSCI and S & P Dow Jones. While the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has rattled the entire equity market, the payments stocks have held up much better than the financials sector funds. Mastercard, Visa and PayPal all have buy ratings from the majority of Wall Street analysts, according to Refinitiv.
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